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Bank of America says the ongoing "anything but bonds" bull market has led to a very top-heavy stock market. The firm is watching real 10-year yields and credit spreads for signals of when that AI-led rally could end. BofA says higher yields and tighter spreads could sound recession alarms and spur a stock sell-off. The key piece is the cohort of mega-cap tech companies that have long dominated stock-market performance, largely because of their affiliation with AI. In the meantime, if you subscribe to BofA's view, you should be watching the 10-year real yield for a signal of when any such downturn is coming.
Persons: BofA, , YCharts There's Organizations: of America, Service, Bank of America, Apple, Nvidia, Microsoft
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBofA's Savita Subramanian: More to the S&P 500 than just semiconductors and megacap tech companiesSavita Subramanian, BofA Securities head of U.S. equity and quantitative strategy, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest market trends, state of the economy, the Fed's interest rate outlook, and more.
Persons: Subramanian Organizations: BofA Securities
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBofA's Jill Carey Hall: We continue to favor small caps for the long-termJill Carey Hall, BofA Securities, and Brooke May, Evans May Wealth, join 'Closing Bell Overtime' to talk the day's market action.
Persons: Jill Carey, Jill Carey Hall, Brooke May, Evans Organizations: BofA Securities, Wealth
In this article JPY= Follow your favorite stocks CREATE FREE ACCOUNTThe Japan flag is juxtaposed against a Japanese yen bank note. Javier Ghersi | Moment | Getty ImagesThe yen slipped past 155 against the U.S. dollar on Thursday, touching a new 34-year low against continued strength in the greenback. The weakness comes as the Bank of Japan is due to release its monetary policy decision Friday and in spite of verbal warnings from Japanese authorities. Some market watchers had speculated that the 155 level would prompt intervention after the currency languished at multi-decade lows for a month. The yen has weakened 4.2% since the BOJ's March meeting, worrying Japanese authorities and investors.
Persons: Javier Ghersi, Shusuke Yamada, Jerome Powell, Appio Organizations: U.S, Bank of Japan, BofA Securities, Federal, First Eagle Investments, CNBC, Korean Locations: Japan, South Korea
Tesla stock could surge 35% after its first-quarter earnings results, according to Bank of America. The bank upgraded Tesla stock to "Buy" and detailed a 4-part plan that could boost the stock. "The tide in news flow appears to suggest the risk to the stock is skewing more positively," BofA said. AdvertisementPositive catalysts are starting to build for Tesla after it announced a dismal first-quarter earnings report, according to Bank of America. Bank of America analyst John Murphy upgraded Tesla stock to "Buy" from "Neutral" and reiterated his $220 price target, representing potential upside of 35% from current levels.
Persons: BofA, , Tesla, John Murphy, Murphy Organizations: Bank of America, Service, Tesla, Investors
In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailYou need an engineer at the top of Boeing's management team, says BofA's Ron EpsteinRon Epstein, Bank of America Securities research analyst, joins 'Squawk Box' to break down Boeing's quarterly earnings results, questions over the company's next management team, and more.
Persons: Ron Epstein Ron Epstein Organizations: Bank of America Securities
Bank of America thinks Tesla's first-quarter results mark the start of a big turnaround. Analyst John Murphy upgraded the electric vehicle maker to buy from neutral. He also reiterated his price target of $220, which implies upside of 52% from Tuesday's close. The upgrade comes as Tesla reported weaker-than-expected earnings and revenue for the first quarter. TSLA 1D mountain TSLA pops BofA's Murphy noted that the quarterly numbers "essentially knocked out the recent negative catalysts with facts or reasonable explanations."
Persons: Tesla's, John Murphy, Tesla, Elon Musk, BofA's Murphy, Price, Murphy Organizations: of America Locations: Tuesday's
The onshore CNY is currently trading at 7.24 per U.S. dollar. The South Korean won recently slipped to an 18-month low of 1,389.5 against the dollar. The Bank of Korea chief called the won volatility "excessive" and said the central bank would intervene if needed. Taiwan dollarBofA also remains negative on the Taiwan dollar given strong equity outflows and life insurance companies' additional unwinding of non-deliverable forward hedges. The Taiwan dollar is currently trading at 32.6 per U.S. dollar.
Persons: SeongJoon Cho Organizations: Korean, Woori, Bloomberg, Getty, U.S, South Korean, Fed, Bank of Korea, U.S ., Taiwan Locations: Seoul, South Korea
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via Email'Volatility is par for the course' for semiconductor stocks in Q2, says BofA's Vivek AryaVivek Arya, senior semiconductor analyst at BofA Securities, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss this week's semiconductor sell-off, quarterly trends for the semi stocks, and more.
Persons: BofA's Vivek Arya Vivek Arya Organizations: BofA Securities
Morgan Stanley Revenue rose 4% year over year to $15.14 billion, beating expectations of $14.41 billion, according to data compiled by LSEG. C YTD mountain Citigroup (C) year-to-date performance Citigroup had a decent quarter, Jim said. Jim said BofA just didn't shine versus the other major banks, and on earnings day Wall Street agreed, sending the stock down 3.5%. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio.
Persons: Jim Cramer, Jim, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, Here's, Morgan Stanley's, Ted Pick, Pick, Goldman, Charlie Scharf, He's, Scharf, Wells, Jane Fraser's, BofA, Jamie Dimon, Jim Cramer's, JPMorgan Organizations: Citigroup, Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, Investment, Morgan, Morgan Stanley Revenue, LSEG, Wealth, Goldman, Wells, Management, Silicon Valley Bank, Club, Citigroup Revenue, Citi, Bank of America Revenue, Bank, of, JPMorgan Chase Revenue, JPMorgan, CNBC, Citibank, Reuters Locations: Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, Silicon, buybacks, Wells
The rise in power demand for data centers — which are booming from the need to support a new world of AI technologies — is also fueling demand for the providers of data center parts. "Expected power usage for U.S. data centers under construction is equivalent to more than 50% of the power currently used by U.S. data centers. Several years out, even after these data centers are constructed, some expect data center power consumption to double again," analyst Thomas Thornton wrote in a Wednesday note. Management is raising its own capital expenditures for the first time in a decade to meet the power demand for data centers, BofA added. To be sure, analysts mentioned that data center demand will likely exceed supply.
Persons: Thomas Thornton, Thornton, BofA, David Barden, Barden, Equinix, Eaton Organizations: Bank of America, Caterpillar, Management, Realty Trust, Digital Realty, Software, Aspen Tech, Constellation Energy, Dominion Energy
Of those companies, 73.6% have beaten earnings expectations, FactSet data shows. Investment banks doing well, BofA not so much The major banks that posted results this week — Goldman Sachs , Morgan Stanley and Bank of America — beat earnings expectations. Bank of America shares fell more than 3% despite the company beating on both top and bottom lines. Mixed earnings picture Although nearly three-quarters of the reported earnings so far have topped expectations, the broader earnings picture is more muddled. The blended earnings growth rate, which considers the reports already out and the estimates from those still pending, sits at just 0.16%.
Persons: — Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Alastair Borthwick, Wells, Mike Mayo, Goliath, Mayo, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo's Mayo, Goldman, Ebrahim Poonawala, cyberattack, George Hill, Doug Anmuth, Jessica Reif Ehrlich, Canaccord Genuity, Chris Harvey Organizations: Investment, Bank of America —, Bank of America, Bank of America's, JPMorgan, Wells, of America, Deutsche, Netflix, NFLX's, Revenue, Microsoft, Exxon Mobil
China's breakout from its economic slump may also mean less government support ahead, BofA said. BofA doesn't expect a "a full-blown growth rebound" as real estate woes and weak demand are still a problem. AdvertisementBank of America boosted its forecast for China's economic growth in 2024 on the heels of a surprisingly strong first-quarter performance from the world's second-largest economy. AdvertisementWith a robust first quarter dataset in hand, policymakers may be less inclined to intensify easing measures, dashing hopes for imminent policy support, according to the bank. The analysts wrote that they anticipate a gradual growth deceleration through the rest of 2024 as policy support wanes.
Persons: BofA, , Helen Qiao, wasn't Organizations: of America, Service, Bank of America, FAI Locations: China
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailNetflix's subscriber reporting change doesn't change their growth trajectory: Jessica Reif EhrlichJessica Reif Ehrlich, BofA Securities senior U.S. media and entertainment analyst, joins 'Squawk Box' to break down Netflix's quarterly earnings results, why the company will stop reporting subscriber numbers in 2025, the streaming landscape at large, impact of the company's crackdown on password sharing, and more.
Persons: Jessica Reif Ehrlich Jessica Reif Ehrlich Organizations: BofA Securities
Hedge fund manager and New York Mets baseball team owner Steven Cohen has already begun to invest in a four-day work week. Cohen isn't alone in forecasting a four-day work week. Jefferies thinks artificial intelligence will make workers more efficient and eventually lead to a four-day work week becoming the norm, according to a note from June 2023. Bank of America also expects the changing post-pandemic work landscape may result in a shorter work week. Opposition to change Opponents to a shorter work week, however, argue that such a change is both politically and economically unfeasible.
Persons: Steven Cohen, " Cohen, Cohen isn't, Jefferies, Henry Ford, Ford, Christian Magoon, Cohen, Magoon, It's, David Bahnsen, Bahnsen, I'm Organizations: New York Mets, CNBC, Bank of America, Economic, COVID, Cloud Technology ETF, IVES, Ionos, Broadcom, Cisco Systems, General Dynamics Locations: France, U.S, Nice
In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailConsumer spending has slowed but is hanging in there, says BofA CEO Brian MoynihanBrian Moynihan, Bank of America CEO, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss company earnings, the state of the consumer and company outlook.
Persons: Brian Moynihan Brian Moynihan Organizations: Bank of America
BofA economist discusses China's first-quarter GDP
  + stars: | 2024-04-16 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBofA economist discusses China's first-quarter GDPMiao Ouyang, Greater China economist at BofA Global Research, discusses what's behind her forecast for China's first-quarter gross domestic product.
Persons: China's, Miao Ouyang Organizations: BofA Global Research Locations: China
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe foreign exchange market will ultimately take its cue from oil prices, BofA strategist saysAdarsh Sinha, co-head of Asia FX and rates strategy at Bank of America, discusses geopolitical tensions and says "even though we're pricing in near-term de-escalation, the longer-term geopolitical risk premium probably has to go up."
Persons: Adarsh Sinha Organizations: Asia FX, Bank of America Locations: Asia
What history shows: Goldman Sachs beats earnings estimates 85% of the time, according to Bespoke Investment Group. What CNBC is watching: Bank of America shares have struggled lately, losing 5.6% this month as investors reprice rate cut expectations. Morgan Stanley is set to report earnings before the open. United Airlines is set to report earnings after the close. Thursday Netflix is set to report earnings after the close.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Chase, Goldman, Devin Ryan, Morgan, Ryan, UNH, UnitedHealth, LSEG, UAL, Leslie Josephs, Oppenheimer, Jason Helfstein, Procter & Gamble, Dara Mohsenian, Procter Organizations: Bank of America, Netflix, JPMorgan, CNBC, JMP Securities, Investment, Tuesday Bank of America, UBS, BofA, Dow Jones Industrial, Street, United Airlines, Boeing, Max, Federal Aviation Administration, San Francisco, United, Procter & Locations: Charlotte, San, U.S, China
The result was a 1.5-percent weekly drop in the S & P 500 , with Friday's setback exacerbated at least somewhat by a collective clenching-up of risk markets on some geopolitical worry. This dynamic hasn't been reversed, but the signal has grown a bit staticky, draining some conviction from the macro bullish case with the S & P 500 still 24% above the October low. Bull market's backdrop First, it's a bull market, and not a particularly mature or excessively generous one yet. Yet both stocks are still outperforming the S & P this year. The S & P 500 closed Friday at exactly the same level of five weeks earlier, on March 8 – which was perhaps the moment of maximum investor confidence in the "we can have it all" thesis.
Persons: I've, Jerome Powell, Powell, Wall, it's, We're, John Butters, Fastenal, Scott Chronert Organizations: Federal, ICE, Treasury, CPI, Fed, Grainger, Citi
This month's rout in smallcap stocks has erased the Russell 2000's sparkling first quarter gain, and the benchmark index for smaller shares could face further trouble ahead so long as interest rates are left unchanged. A hotter-than-expected March inflation report on Wednesday pushed investors on Wall Street to extend out expectations for the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut to September from June, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool . The Fed's last interest rate increase in the current cycle was in July, 2023. Servicing debt Hall specifies that the risk to smallcaps is tied to the effect of higher interest rates on refinancing needs. "Higher for longer [interest rates have] generally been good for small cap stocks.
Persons: Russell, Smallcaps, They're, Jill Carey Hall, Hall, Steven DeSanctis, DeSanctis Organizations: Wall, Federal, Bank of America, Bank of, Jefferies Locations: U.S
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFundamentals for the big banks are pretty strong, says BofA's PoonawalaEbrahim Poonawala, Band of America Securities head of North American banks research, joins 'Power Lunch' to discuss if he saw any concerns from bank earnings, what the bank stocks are reacting to, and more.
Persons: BofA's Poonawala Ebrahim Poonawala Organizations: of America Securities
Bank of America upgrades Nike, here's why
  + stars: | 2024-04-11 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBank of America upgrades Nike, here's whyLorraine Hutchinson, retail analyst at BofA Securities, joins 'Money Movers' to discuss why Nike's earnings estimates look achievable, how Nike lost the innovation edge, and more.
Persons: Lorraine Hutchinson Organizations: Email Bank of America, Nike, BofA Securities
Bank of America pushed back its forecast for the first rate cut of 2024 from June to December. The re-acceleration of inflation means markets should expect just a single 25 basis-point cut this year. AdvertisementThe recent string of unexpectedly high inflation readings has led Bank of America to push back its forecast for the first rate-cut of 2024 from June to December. Moreover, unfavorable base effects mean year-over-year core PCE inflation will probably not decline further between the June and September meetings," the note said. This would mean one-25bp rate cut this year, instead of our previous forecast of 75bp in rate cuts," analysts added.
Persons: , Michael Gapen, Goldman Sachs, Larry Summers Organizations: of America, Service, Bank of America, RBC, US
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe consumer is softer but still stable, says BofA Institute’s Liz Everett KrisbergLiz Everett Krisberg, head of Bank of America Institute, joins ‘Squawk Box’ to break down the Institute’s March Consumer Checkpoint Report, which provides real-time consumer spending and financial health estimates.
Persons: BofA, Liz Everett, Liz Everett Krisberg Organizations: Bank of America Institute
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